It’s looking ominous. The forecast is for 40 degrees, my official meltdown point. And worse. The stewards have rescheduled the first race to start at 11.50 am with the last at 3.20 pm. The chief steward Terry Bailey is quoted in the paper as saying that “it won’t be a pretty presentation of racing … as the horses will be brought into the mounting yard and the riders will immediately mount up, and once they arrive at the barrier stalls they will be placed in and dispatched as quickly as possible.” It throws me right out of whack. Whoever has their lunch at 10.30? Life wasn’t meant to be easy for horse watchers.

And so it proves. Not pretty. The horses are held back in the birdcage until the last minute and then rushed up to the mounting yard where the jock hops on and straight out onto the track. I only have half a second to look at each horse and some I miss altogether. No time for photography. And I even missed a mares race altogether. I was spitting chips as I was quite keen on Louisville Dancer after backing it last start at Sandown in a mid-weeker. But no see, no bet. It won in a breeze.

In the end three bets for two placed horses, Kasane and Chasse, and a loser, Crafty Cruiser. Not too bad a start.

Happy New Year.

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Now that I’ve got my eye in I’m seeing Kineton nosebands everywhere. Two more today at Flemington on Wind Shear in the fourth and Creed in the fifth. They are not listed in the race book gear information as the list only notes changes to approved gear. Wind Shear finished seventh and Creed a reasonable fourth. I’ll have to start my own list.

I had a major psychological breakthrough today. I went to Flemington early for the two-year-olds with the expectation of backing Catalonia. I had an image in my mind of the wonderfully relaxed horse that I saw at Caulfield two weeks ago and the healthy $2.70 place divvy. But the horse was unhappy in its stall, nibbling on the tie-up, pawing, and shaking its head. In the yard the horse was still unhappy with the strapper leaning into it with her shoulder and the horse twisting its neck and showing me some teeth. I much prefer my favourites to be more settled and so I decided to oppose the horse for the place on Betfair. Catalonia duly laboured into fifth place. I didn’t win much money but felt immensely pleased that I could change my brain from a back to a lay on the same horse so easily.

Not much else to report. A third with What A Beauty at even money for the place and a loser with Khas Kura. At least my money had a run around.

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The bottomweight in the last race, Applaud The Dame, is listed in the race book gear information as wearing a Kyneton noseband. I haven’t really paid much attention to this uncommon piece of gear, which is quite surprising considering my aversion to the common nose roll and the cross-over noseband. I attempted a few photographs, which is quite tricky with a moving horse and it’s hard to see how it actually works. A quick check of Wikipedia when I get home is quite helpful: “Named for the English town of Kineton, and originating in horse racing  for animals uncontrollable at high speeds, this noseband is often cited as being rather severe. It transfers bit pressure from the rider’s hand to the nose. The Kineton has metal half-rings that pass under the bit, and a leather strap that sits below the bit and over the nose (which it does not encircle) about where a drop noseband would cross. There is no strap to keep the horse’s mouth closed.”

If you look carefully at the second photograph (click on it and then click again to enlarge it!) you will be able to see the half rings. There’s a reasonable picture of one in the Register of Nationally Approved Gear.  The key to quickly distinguishing a Kineton band from a regular noseband seems to be the buckles on each side for adjusting the length of the band.

 There are probably a couple of comments to make. First, we seem to have Ozzified the name in honour of our local Victorian town of Kyneton. The second is that it is mainly used on horses that pull, so that you would have to think that the chances of Applaud The Dame at 300/1 were rather remote.

 All this fussing around meant that I missed a betting opportunity on my favourite class of race, the mares. This was doubly disappointing since I was cashed up for the last with collects on Lonhreign, Token of Honour and At The Heads.

Still, three out of three. Not too bad a day.

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Last year I was left out in the cold, but this year I have the invite to the Members’ Christmas Cocktail Party. And so with a belly full of party pies and wine I’m pumped and primed – ready to look at the two-year-olds. The favourite Starchine has one white sock. Isn’t there a ditty: “If a horse has one white sock, buy him, two white socks try him, three white socks, be shy of him, four white socks …..?” Leg markings probably have little impact on performance, but the punters obviously like him, even though he’s one of three or four colts who are behaving outrageously in the mounting yard. The filly Catalonia is the only cool customer. Two of the fractious colts, Ferment and Henia grab first and third, but sandwiched in between is the relaxed Catalonia at $2.70 for the place.

Starchine

In the second Her Diamond Rock is a standout and wins like a good thing. I had a rare bet with the books at $3.50 for the place when the tote was showing $2.80, although the final dividend eased out to $3.30. Two out of two and on fire! In the fourth I had Mayneda Strategy on top but squibbed the bet as I was still smarting from when I backed her last start at Sandown in a mid-weeker and she came fifth of five runners. I did wince when she returned $2.80 for third. In the mares I liked Inablitz who charged home from last to miss by a nostril and then bled from both of them. $1.80 for the place.

And the get out stakes had some of my favourites in it. Gandalf’s horse, Shadowfax, the American Cannonball, and my pet miscreant, Jungle Ruler. The Ruler is a no show, and Cannonball has changed trainers after a holiday in Sydney and is now with Pat Carey. Maybe that will settle him down a bit.  Shadowfax looks magnificent, but is too short at $1.50 the place, so I just watch. Why are the horses with good names overbet? Cannonball takes off like a shot out of a gun but explodes on the turn and finishes tailed off 12 lengths last. Gandalf’s horse, all class, works home stylishly, but just fails to peg back the winner Alpha Proxima.

Still, three out of three. Not a bad day.

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When I was a boy back in 1971 – oh my gosh, 40 years ago – the Sandown Cup was a big deal. A crowd of 40 or 50,000, over 200 bookmakers, and the great Goondiwindi Grey, Gunsynd, carrying 9 stone 1 pound to victory over a mile and a half. Those were the good old days. Everything seemed bigger and better back then. Today the race is a low class affair over 3200 metres. The top weight is Norsqui with 57 kilograms. The ratings experts tell me that Norsqui is a lay, because of the step up in distance from last start and the rise in weight of 3 kgs. And they proved to be correct, with Norsqui feeling the pinch over the last 200 metres, but just hanging on for third.

I didn’t back the horse, but there was a lot to like about his mounting yard behaviour. He was prancing around, head in towards the strapper, with a slightly arched neck. These are all good signs. The only thing you need to forgive him for are the red winkers!

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I was there. I was one of the 85,112 who witnessed Black Caviar in another historic exercise gallop. But the trouble with so many fans trying to look at the champ is that I couldn’t get a decent look at the other six contenders. Too many midget jockeys in the way. I think $4.40 for the place paid on Buffering was an opportunity that went begging. But I covered myself in glory with three out of three placed horses – Con Act, Secret Admirer and Shoot Off. I finally broke out from being positive to well ahead for the spring.

And I noticed that Francesca was wired up for a busy day pursuing horses around the mounting yard for Channel 7. I set the DVD recorder at home to suss out what sort of comments she makes. Here’s a couple:

Wall Street. “I thought his run in the Cox Plate was super impressive. He sat last and came really wide and ran on really well. He’s a lovely, lovely looking, big, strong horse, son of Montjeu, and loves the track here at Flemington. So he’s one to watch out for most definitely.”

Toorak Toff. “He was a good third on Saturday in the Tab.com.au stakes and Craig Williams who rode him says he thinks he would stretch out to a mile. That’s the key question. If he stays, he’s in the mix..…(suddenly the horse lets fly with a bucking and kicking display in the background and Francesca notices it)….. ah, he’s just having a bit of a buck and a kick. He’s clearly feeling very well!”

I think it’s time now for me to forget Francesca. Sure she has a double degree, is articulate, can ride horses, write and look good, but her mounting yard comments seem to be mainly based on her prior knowledge of form and breeding rather than the horse’s actual appearance in the yard. Maybe a horse bucking its brands off does feel very well, but as a punting proposition, it makes me very nervous. And I’m feeling sorry for Sam Hyland, who normally does the mounting yard reports for TVN. Sam was bumped from the yard and forced to watch the horses in the parade ring from an eerie on top of the horse stalls. I took his photo so that he doesn’t feel too left out. But we both agreed that Francesca probably beats him for looks.

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A glimpse

A losing day coming into the eighth race, when the hot favourite, Master Harry, starts to misbehave in the yard. Winkers, head up and changing stride, resisting the jockey. Overaroused. All over the shop. He is $1.28 the place with books, an easing $1.40 on the tote and $1.45 on Betfair. I oppose him for the place. How sweet it is when he struggles into sixth place. My first lay for the carnival. I just got out of gaol.

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There was a time when two strappers leading a horse was a rare sight in The Cup. These days, with all the internationals, it is common. But the locals are picking up on it. Lloyd Williams uses two strappers on all his horses, and other trainers are following suit. In the book it is a mild negative, but now it has turned the corner and is a positive. Today, Americain, Manighar, Unusual Suspect, Lucas Cranach, Lost In The Moment, Modun, and At First Sight were all led by two strappers, and still I could have missed some with two circles of horses in the mounting yard. With so many strappers it was a wonder there was room for any horses. Dunaden looked good, but I marked him down for the nose roll. The standout in the yard was Red Cadeaux. Lucas Cranach had the bar plates off which was good, but foot problems are always a worry. I ended up backing Niwot, following my money from Derby Day. Five bets for two collects (Vintedge, Little Surfer Girl) and three losers (Adroitly, Niwot, Éclair Mystic), but still a positive day.

Best hat was no contest and clearly deserved by Mr Very Impressive with his Titanic creation. And I can report a Francesca sighting.

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Derby Day – the greatest day’s racing on earth. And the weather looks awful. I’m just about to head out the door when the skies clear and I grab the straw hat for its first workout of the spring. My optimism is rewarded with a beautiful day. The track is a borderline Dead 5, but I still manage four bets for two collects (Niwot and Induna) and two losses (Efficient and Ego’s Dare). A positive start to a big week. Nothing to photograph with all the men in dark suits and funereal ties and all the women wearing black and white outfits from David Jones. Hopefully there will be more colour and movement on Tuesday.

I did see some hock protectors, which are most unusual, and I did see two people who had passed out early. Don’t they realise this is a week for stayers? There are still three days to go.

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I’m off to the AGM again. This year it’s in the Grand Ballroom of the Sofitel Hotel. I’m a bit worried about how my shares are going now that Tabcorp has jettisoned its casino business. And I’m keen to compare the quality of the refreshments on offer with last year at the Tennis Centre. Those lamb cutlets were something special.

It seems to be good news and bad news. They’ve retained the Victorian wagering licence for 12 years, which is good. But it cost them $410 million which is a worry when predicted EBITDA for FY14 is $120 million. So it will take 3-4 years just to pay it off. And the competition from the corporates is a worry, with market share now down to 43%. But taking them on with Luxbet is good. And they are in the Federal Court appealing the decision to allow internet betting terminals in pubs, which is a worry. But they’ve got the Victoria Keno licence for 12 years which is good. And the Betfair case in the High Court is a worry, but the take up of Trackside in NSW is good.

Good news, bad news. Worry, worry. I’m mainly confused. The share price is struggling and is not much above the $2.25 original float price in 1994. But if you look back at 1992/93 wagering revenue was $296.5 million. Wagering revenue in the first quarter for 2012 was $394 million, equivalent to $1.58 billion for a full year. So wagering has grown some five times in 20 odd years. Maybe I should buy some more. But there are more shares on issue so earnings per share have probably lagged wagering growth. Maybe I shouldn’t.

I ponder imponderables over ham sandwiches and party pies for lunch. The pies are popular and not too bad at all. But not a patch on lamb cutlets. As penance for overindulgence I decide to walk back to Flinders Street station where a large crowd has gathered. Her Majesty has decided it is time to board the Royal Tram. I saw her passing by. I wonder if she’ll get party pies for lunch at Guv House?

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