At last, the long-awaited sequel to Dr. Geoffrey Hutson's breakthrough book Watching Racehorses is now available! In Watching More Racehorses, learn more about behavioural handicapping, betting on horses to lose, and the taxation of gambling winnings! Order Now!

Flemington Black Caviar Lightning Stakes Day

February 16th, 2019

There were some good horses lining up for the Lightning. Sunlight immediately caught my eye and looked outstanding. I nearly put my book down since there was no point in looking at any other horse. But I persisted, after all $1.60 for the place is not my sort of bet. Osborne Bulls looked good. Relaxed, big, strong. I wrote off Written By, misbehaving with the two strappers. The speedy Divine Quality needed guidance from the clerk to make it around the yard. Not a good sign. Graff was OK. In Her Time was a bit head up when she went past me and showing a bit of teeth. With hindsight, Osborne Bulls should have been the place bet.

But it was a good day with two standouts. Intuition in the third streeted them and Talented in the two-year-old ran a bold second to Microphone. Always happy with two out of two.

0 comments

Caulfield Australia Day

January 26th, 2019

Life is a beach! Is it not? I suppose if horse racing doesn’t attract the punters because they are all at the beach, then bring the beach to the punters! I would have thought that if you are at the beach then the new technology makes it easy to have a bet and watch the race under your umbrella, with cold beers close at hand in the chilly bin. Why bother going to the track? Maybe it is just a gimmick for Australia Day. But it is reassuring to see that there are lifeguards with flotation devices in case anyone drowns in debt!

I had a losing day, my first for some time. Lifeguards! Help! In the first race for three-year-old fillies Embrace Me looked too good to refuse but went to the line boxed in and untested to finish third in a six horse field. I was very disappointed with the ride of Craig Williams. How do you get trapped in such a small field? The stewards’ report noted that Embrace Me was “held up for clear running from the 400m until approaching the 100m and laid inwards in the straight.”

And in the two-year-old preview for males Auxin was the only colt holding on to his head in the mounting yard. I thought I had third place all wrapped up only to be lunged out of it on the line. So a third and a fourth for zero return!

The only other thing of interest to report is the behaviour of the two-year-old filly Catch Me in the mounting yard. Throwing the jockey off, was it twice or three times? The horse then went out and won convincingly. I would normally lay these types of horses except my stats advise caution! In Watching More Racehorses I point out an apparent anomaly where Airborne Jockey has a positive behavioural handicap of 54%! The sample size is small, but I have seen 64 flying jockeys with 9 improbable winners. Those stats now become 10 out of 65, or a strike rate of 15.4%! Clearly I should back and not lay.

And another thing. What the hell is VOP? The course broadcaster kept banging on about it until I was forced to ask Siri. Apparently it is a new system that replaces the old bookies starting price. Known as the Victorian Official Price it is sourced from the prices of high turnover Australian Wagering Service Providers as opposed to oncourse bookmakers in Victoria. I guess that means the corporates in Darwin. And I guess that the old SP system has been ditched anyway as not many bookies bother to show up on course these days!

2 comments

Flemington Chester Manifold Stakes Day

January 12th, 2019

And a Happy New Year to all horsewatchers!

I got there early for the two-year-olds and it was a hotbed of testosterone. Five colts, and it seemed like all of them were calling out, rearing up, and flopping huge erections around. Amid all the chaos there was one filly calmly ignoring the carry-on, Pretty Brazen, with a nice positive strapper. I went for it at $1.90 on the tote, only to see it tumble into $1.70 the place. Obviously I wasn’t the only one to be impressed. The filly had it won, only to be nailed in the shadows of the post. I didn’t have another bet until Manolo Blahniq in the last race, a typical horsewatcher’s head-down horse, and a nice $2.20.

So between the first and last I tried to work out a new strategy for watching horses at Flemington. My refuge, the Island Bar, is no more. Its replacement, the Members Bar, has been kicked upstairs to the first floor of the Club Stand. Too hard for me to wander in from the yard. I don’t want to climb stairs. But there is a walkway to the horse stalls on the first floor, so maybe that’s an option, but I discover there is no way to get down to the stalls once you get there, you can just look down from above. What is the point in that!? There is the Paddock Bar near the yard, but it is open and exposed to the south-westerly wind, and there are no tote operators, just a few machines. I do like a cash bet now and then and handling the folding money. So much better than a change in the balance on your phone. The bookies ring is deserted and I don’t bet with them. But there are a handful of tote windows out there. So I guess it’s the Paddock Bar and then out to the tote near the bookies. The entrance to the Club Stand is like the foyer of a five star hotel with comfortable lounge chairs and a screen for the races flanked by racing memorabilia, but no screens with odds. I suppose this is where I will end up watching the races. I could even fall asleep here!

Do you think horse racing is dying? All the horse bookshops that used to sell my book have closed down – the Horseman’s Bookshop in Melbourne and Sydney, Mitty’s in Melbourne, the High Stakes Bookshop in London, the Gamblers Bookshop in Las Vegas. My book distributor, Dennis Jones, has gone into liquidation owing me about $1000. My IT advisor says this is all “the sad state of dead tree publishing”. He also says long form blogs are going the same way and that I should move to Twitter or Instagram. Twitter? Whoever would want to share a platform with Donald Trump?

So, I’m thinking, I should probably stop flogging a dead horse. Maybe this blog should become shorter and less frequent. And maybe just fire up for the spring!

8 comments

The Zipping Classic

November 17th, 2018

It should probably be renamed the Lloyd Williams Classic. How many times has he won it now? Today he has the favourite and last year’s winner The Taj Mahal. Out the back in the horse wash the horse is getting pretty aroused. And roaring! He must have an assignation in the breeding barn on his mind. As you may know I like my horses to be relaxed so high arousal is generally not a good sign. The traditional view is that too much testosterone means that the horse hasn’t got his mind on the job. But the trainer does a good job to dampen his ardour with a well directed hose. Let’s see how he looks in the yard.

In the yard The Taj is fine, all sweetness and light, with the usual two strappers. And Dal Harraild is a head in horse. I like that. And Libran looks good head down, salivating. I check my cheat sheet list of positive variables (page 140 of Volume 2) and note that head in is plus 25, sex signs plus 31, and head down salivating plus 51. So I go for Libran. In the straight The Taj is too good and noses out Dal Harraild.  A triumph for sexual energy!  Old Libran feels his age and compounds to finish last. Oh well.

 

0 comments

The Melbourne Cup

November 6th, 2018

The heavens opened at about 7 am and didn’t stop until midday. 43 mm in my gauge! Wow! Too wet for a serious bet, but the track drained remarkably quickly to a Soft 6. My tram was held up by the floods and I didn’t get to the track and out the back until about an hour before the race. No time to see all the Cup runners and just a brief scan of the internationals.

My spot on the mounting yard fence was occupied by hats which made viewing conditions very difficult. The Cliffsofmoher was frothing on the bit, but it was pink froth! I quite like salivation, but blood in the mouth?! That’s a bad sign. A portent of doom, perhaps. I couldn’t have Cross Counter who I had marked as a head-up horse. The ear muffs were good but the bandages were bad, especially considering the interrupted preparation, and the wet track The horse was sweating freely which is a positive on a day of 100% humidity. With hindsight, maybe the bandages were a furphy!

I loved two cleanskins – Marmelo and Muntahaa. Muntahaa was probably the pick of the yard but either didn’t handle the going or the trip. Marmelo was just beautifully relaxed and looked the winner late. I backed them both for the place. I am always happy to win with my only bet for the day. Just think, Marmelo might have won if the jockey hadn’t weighed in a kilo overweight! I imagine that there were a few punters spitting chips when they heard that news!

 

0 comments

Derby Day

November 3rd, 2018

The greatest day of racing on earth. But I suggest it should be renamed Hotham Handicap Day.

Or maybe Prince of Arran day! After all, wouldn’t you rather bet on a seasoned stayer than a three-year-old having its first try at a distance?

 

0 comments

Cox Plate

October 27th, 2018

It’s all Winx!

 

 

0 comments

Caulfield Cup

October 20th, 2018

It’s raining at my place. Steady, heavy, beautiful rain. There’s 10 millimetres in my gauge. Great for the parched garden, which has its tongue out lolling, but a disaster for the races. It delays my departure for the track for more than an hour! Watching rain is nearly as good as watching racehorses!

My intended bet The Cliffsofmoher looks fabulous out the back. Standing forward in the stall, relaxed, no strapper attention, half asleep. But look at Duretto for strapper attention. How cool is that? Compare it with Best Solution, who is very restless and has the fussing of two strappers constantly fiddling with him. The strapper of Kings Will Dream is terrific, positive, and stroking a nice calm and interested horse.

It starts raining on my racebook when the horses get into the parade ring. The page is too soggy to write on. My intended bet The Cliffsofmoher is crabbing sideways and tossing its head up. That’s a worry! It’s easy to fall out of love! And salivating and half-lolling its tongue. But that’s OK. It starts raining on my book. It’s too soggy to write! That’s a worry. It always means no bet, but it would be un-Australian not to have a go at the Caulfield Cup. So I jump off The Cliff and jump onto the favourite, Kings Will Dream. The horse stumbles at the start and loses all chance. The winner, Best Solution, was too good. Duretto ran on well. I know I shouldn’t bet with a soggy racebook!

 

0 comments

Caulfield Guineas

October 13th, 2018

Do you do cryptic crosswords? Ever attempt DA? Here’s a clue. 13 Across. “Young white knight, with an interesting surname, I hear”.

First up for my season are the two-year-olds, and I’m much tempted by the omen bet, Utzon, the much publicised albino. There’s a heap of people around her stall with raised iPhones. The filly seems reasonably relaxed with the two strappers but by the time she gets into the yard she starts to get her head up and fidgety. Favourite, at $1.60 the place? Overbet, as many striking horses are, and probably a lay. But I’m much taken by the relaxed Biscara. In the running Biscara dived for a run that wasn’t really there, got bumped sideways, but managed to recover and run on strongly for second at $2.80. Should have won, said the watcher, but happy with $2.80 first up in the new season. The white knight, Utzon, was a victim of the interference too, but couldn’t recover.

And that’s it. I didn’t have another bet all day as I got my eye in. I saw two standouts, Sunlight and The Autumn Sun, and spent a lot of time out the back eyeing the Cup horses. I fell in love with two horses – Thecliffsofmoher (been there!) and Yucatan. Both horses were standing forward in their stall and not cringing in the back corner. Thecliffsofmoher was nuzzling the strapper and trying to eat his lunch! The horse ran on very well for fourth despite getting very hot in the yard. Yucatan just looked imperious, and that’s how he won! Bring on the Cups!

 

2 comments

Caufield Raceday

May 12th, 2018

This is the way the season ends. Not with a bang but a whimper. Slow 6, no show. Hopefully I’ll be back in the spring for the Caulfield Guineas.

 

8 comments