I like my horses to keep four feet on the ground. Out the back today the three-year-old gelding Holbien was bucking his brands off. But oddly enough, bucking is now a slightly positive variable in WMR. I remarked in the book: “obviously strong-willed horses that are bucking their brands off will go out and win races, but they are risky propositions, and you can be assured that I will not bet on them”.
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- Holbien
So I followed my own advice and of course Holbien romped in at $1.90 the place. Three-year-old male horses continue to be my bête noire. Maybe it’s time to revise my opinion?
Sydney was frustrating with either no standouts or too many. In R8, Arbeitsam looked relaxed but weakened to run 5th in a bunched finish (five within 0.7 lengths). In Melbourne R3, Ploverset looked relaxed and alert on my iPhone TV but so did She Knows, so I took a punt and backed the better known trainer/jockey combination Hayes/Zahra. Ploverset paid $2.70 for 2nd on BF. She Knows was not far away in 5th. In R8, Soho Ruby looked mostly relaxed (and was dropping substantially in class from her previous run). Paid $2.10 the place on BF. (Sometimes it’s hard to get a bet on with Betfair, even for a relatively small amount like $100 – $200, and even on Saturdays, so it’s worth taking the SP option to get on quickly if necessary. The BF CEO in a recent interview claimed that betting SP yields a 15% better return over time. I don’t know why that should be so, but on several occasions it’s proved correct for me. Something to do with the frantic lay betting that goes on in the 30 seconds before the jump, which can cause prices to inflate wildly – like the Big Bang!)
Hi Geoffrey
Saw D’Argento bucking in the parade before the Rosehill guineas
Yesterday