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The Zipping Classic

November 16th, 2019 2 comments

Only two bets in Cup week with a wet racebook so it will be nice to have a go today. In the three-year-old fillies California Salto leaves an impressive trail of sloppy excreta scattered over the yard so I go for the lay. I’m left opposing it at $2.50 for the place when the horse is backed in late to $2.10. Fortunately the horse doesn’t disappoint and labours into sixth place. In the next I take a set against Willliam Thomas but the bane of my life returns when I find my Betfair page is frozen. This often seems to happen, especially after a collect. By the time I have powered off and on the race is away and I have missed another collect.

In the Guineas, Pretty Brazen is an absolute standout and at $1.40 for the place I am forced to bet for a win at $3.60. What a magnificent filly! The name seemed to ring a bell and on checking my records at home I see that I backed this horse as a two-year-old at Flemington back in January. More in store I suggest.

In the classic Zipping looked good, although you may detect a decent bulge under that rug. The winner Southern France looked good too, salivating with the head down, but late into the yard. This time the $1.40 for the place was too short for me.

And so the carnival is over!

2 Responses to “ The Zipping Classic ”

  1. Trevor says:

    Geoffrey,

    I assume that the positives for Southern France far outweighed the single negative of a cross-over noseband? No head up or lolling this time round.

    When producing a score for each horse would you add the positive and negative scores together, then rank horses by total score, or should the two types of score be kept separate depending on whether you wish to back or lay?

    (To help with the indecision) I know we shouldn’t be totally bound by rules but how much typically should the score for the top rated horse roughly differ from the second rated horse for it to be a standout? One option, in your book, is to back horses with a positive handicap >50% having removed those exhibiting negative behaviours (just keep the “normal” ones). So only one horse meeting that criteria could be the definition of a stand out.

    Would a horse become less of a standout if it were facing multiple contenders who had not been crossed off for bad behaviour?

    Finally on the subject of class, are most of the courses you attend in the highest grade? And was the data collected, and presented in your books, from the same courses?

    At one course I visit I have noticed that the winners of the lower grade races (typically handicaps) are often wearing headgear. So I’m beginning to wonder whether I should just focus on the better races. The two-year old maidens, even with low prize money, still attract some well bred horses from the higher ranking trainers (e.g. last week a full-brother to a St. Leger winner won a low prize maiden first time out).

  2. Geoffrey says:

    Hello Trevor, I agree with all of what you say here.
    1. Southern France
    Yes. I’m still adjusting my thinking about the cross-over noseband. All the European horses that came here for the Cup sported a cross-over noseband. I think there were 12 or 13 in the Cup! So obviously they are more of an institution in your country. However they are certainly less severe than earlier types which were leather straps with buckles to clamp the mouth shut. Prince Of Arran for example had a large soft woolly patch under the crossover and Southern France’s was probably a single coiled piece of solid tubular rubber. I would also discount it if the horse has won with it previously.
    2.Adding the positive and negative scores.
    In general, yes. The lay horses usually make themselves known in a quite distinctive manner and I wouldn’t even bother adding up their score. The filly spraying the mounting yard with excrement is an example.
    3.Rules. Yes, I still like the >50% method and it is largely what I do. But I do like my standouts to be the only horse still standing in my racebook! In other words I have crossed out all the competition. And also I agree we shouldn’t be totally rule bound. For example I have strayed several times recently from my $1.80 place limit, and even backed standouts for the win when the place odds were too short!
    4.Less of a standout if it were facing multiple contenders who had not been crossed off for bad behaviour?
    Most definitely!
    5.Finally on the subject of class, are most of the courses you attend in the highest grade? Yes. All from metropolitan Melbourne tracks. I don’t go to the provincial or country meetings.

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